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2011年11月4日星期五

Ask the experts: Eurozone crisis

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27 September 2011 Last updated at 22:54 GMT By Laurence Knight & Ian Pollock Business reporters, BBC News Dax index board at the Frankfurt stock exchange Our experts answer your eurozone crisis questions Last month, the BBC asked viewers what questions they had about their finances, particularly given fears about a renewed financial crisis and recession.

Here, BBC journalists Laurence Knight and Ian Pollock answer your questions about how the eurozone debt crisis might affect you.

Why, with the eurozone in crisis, is the pound still so weak against the euro? - Roy Waite, Carentoir, France

Put simply, the UK is in no better shape than the eurozone.

Both currency blocs (and the US for that matter) face the same economic malaise. Debts are too high, particularly household debts, so nobody wants to spend - not consumers, not businesses, not even governments.

That means interest rates in the UK and the eurozone are likely to remain very low for many years, making both currencies an unattractive place for investors to park their cash.

But thanks to the hawkish European Central Bank, eurozone interest rates have actually been somewhat higher than in the UK - and were even rising until recently - helping to push the euro's value up.

High interest rates and a strong euro have of course made things even harder for Greece and other heavily-indebted governments, and markets view their debts as very risky.

But the euro is also home to German government debt - considered an ultra-safe investment by markets.

Even if the more distressed eurozone governments defaulted on their debts, the consequences would be felt well beyond the eurozone's borders, much as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was felt outside the US.

And if these countries left the euro, the value of the remaining, more German-dominated euro might actually go up.

How prepared are we, the Bank of England, etc, for a Greek default? - Robert W Warne, Cardiff

Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.

Bank of England governor Mervyn King revealed in response to MPs' questions in June that the Bank was working with the Treasury to draw up contingency plans for a Greek default.

He did not give any details of what those plans are, nor have any emerged since.

The direct exposure of UK banks to Greece is fairly limited, but - as with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers - a Greek default could have a number of knock-on effects that affect the UK far more severely.

For example, it could lead to the failure of one or more European banks because of their exposure to Greece, or to a general loss of confidence in global banks, in the euro or in the debts of other over-stretched eurozone governments.

The plan may consider actions such as:

emergency cash loans from the Bank of England to the UK banks, if there is a collapse of market confidence in theminterventions to support other short-term cash markets, such as commercial paper markets, which are used by companies to fund themselvesthe government injecting new loss-absorbing capital into the banks, if they suffer heavy losses because of the failure of a European bank or losses on other eurozone government debtsthe Bank publishing details of an audit currently under way of the UK banks' exposures to the eurozone, in order to reduce uncertainty and restore confidencemonetary stimulus - such as cutting rates to zero and buying up more UK government debt - in order to head off a broader economic downturnemergency tax cuts and/or spending increases by the government for the same purpose, with some of the resulting borrowing to be funded by the Bank of England's debt purchasescurrency interventions if the euro were to drop significantly against the pound.What would happen to euros in bank accounts in non-eurozone countries when/if the eurozone breaks up and turns into two or more different currencies? - Robert, Bath

You should check the terms of your bank account.

So long as the euro continues to exist - minus some members - your account should be unaffected.

If, for example, Greece left the euro, its government would probably pass a law overriding its existing euro contracts, as well as those of Greek banks, companies and individuals, redenominating them all into new drachmas.

Some legal experts have warned of a huge mess in these circumstances, with litigation brought by anyone who lost out on the conversion.

However, most financial contracts specify the law of a particular country as its "governing law". For a bank account in Athens or a Greek government bond, the governing law is Greece. So it would be hard for anyone to argue in court that these contracts should not be redenominated, if the Greek parliament says so.

But an account held in a non-eurozone country is likely to apply the law in that country, or the law of a popular jurisdiction such as England, New York or Germany. So it should be unaffected by a Greek redenomination law, unless your account is with a Greek bank.

If the euro ceased to exist altogether - with even Germany exiting - then what happens depends primarily on your account terms, assuming that they are not governed by the laws of one of the eurozone countries.

Your bank probably would have reserved the right to choose which national currency to use as a successor to the euro. Its choice would then be a commercial decision, based on how much it values its reputation and client relations over its own short-term financial gain.

Where does the European Central Bank get the money from to buy Spanish and Italian bonds? How much do they have available and what will they do if they use it all? - Peter Gray, Hitchin, Herts

Essentially the ECB, together with the "eurosystem" of 17 national central banks, can itself create the money that it uses to buy government debts.

There is therefore no theoretical limit to how much it can buy up.

When the ECB buys an Italian bond, it can pay for it by providing to the bond seller with a newly-created euro deposit at the seller's national central bank.

The seller can then use this deposit as "money" to buy other financial instruments, or it can redeem the deposit for newly-printed euro cash.

Practically, however, there are three limits on how much the ECB can do this.

The central bank's first priority is price stability. Creating new money is typically viewed as inflationary.

The ECB may try to reduce the impact of this money creation by borrowing the newly-created money back from the market, or by selling other assets it owns - German government bonds perhaps.

However, in the current heavily-depressed economy, many economists argue that money creation is not inflationary at all, at least in the medium-term, as banks are simply hoarding the money.

Secondly, the ECB may make losses on the bonds if Italy defaulted on its debts, or if it sold them back to the market at a lower price than it bought them.

The eurosystem has "capital" - money given to it by the eurozone governments when it was set up, plus profits it has made on its operations - of about 80bn euros that can absorb these losses.

But if the losses are too big, the ECB would need to be given new capital by the eurozone governments - something they are not legally obliged to do.

So the ECB may be concerned that any such bail-out could damage its cherished political independence.

Thirdly, the ECB is concerned not to distort markets too much, and in particular, not to discourage fiscal discipline by the Italian or Spanish governments by making it too easy for them to borrow.

I have three Spanish buy-to-let mortgages. I am saving sterling in the hope that the euro will collapse in value, to help pay off one of the mortgages. If a euro member leaves, is this likely to happen? If I default on the other two mortgages, can the bank take the one that I have just paid off? - Michael Sands, Northern Ireland

There are too many missing pieces of information to give you a sensible answer. Are the three properties in Spain or the UK? Is your lender in the UK or Spain? Were the loans in pounds or euros?

Whatever the facts, you appear to be in a hole, and as the former Labour Chancellor Denis Healey once said, in that situation, you should stop digging.

Let's assume the properties are in Spain and you borrowed euros from a UK lender to buy them.

Your suggested strategy is complex and hinges on several different things going your way, which they may not.

Firstly, devaluation of the euro. That might happen if one or more countries left the euro, but equally the euro might in fact strengthen if just the weakest countries such as Greece and the Irish Republic leave.

If Spain left the euro and, presumably, readopted the peseta as the national currency, you might think you would benefit from a probable devaluation of the newly adopted peseta.

But you might still be legally obliged to repay your debts in euros, regardless of the new local currency in Spain. And again, the euro might not devalue but appreciate if Spain left.

So, your guess that economic upheaval will inevitably reduce the value of your euro-denominated debts may not be accurate.

Your ambition to default on two mortgages after paying off just the third is also off beam.

Firstly, it is arguably dishonest.

Secondly, if you borrowed from a UK lender, then unless they were asleep when they lent you the money, they will have a charge over all three properties.

They will be able to chase you for any outstanding debts, once they have seized the two defaulted properties and sold them.

The same applies if you borrowed from a lender in Spain. If you still owe them money after they have seized your two mortgaged homes and sold them, they can still pursue you for the debt, there and here.

If your finances are too distressed, default may be inevitable. But it will not be an easy escape route from the debts you took on.


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2011年11月3日星期四

Shares up on eurozone bank plan

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 21:02 GMT Angela Merkel German support is considered crucial for any European bank rescue proposal European stock markets ignored fresh warnings about Italy's ability to repay its debts by staging a strong rally.

Reports that European leaders are considering co-ordinated action to bolster banks sent European markets up 3%-5%, while Wall Street also rallied.

On Tuesday, Moody's cut Italy's credit rating by three notches and warned about the country's growth rate.

But investors focused on signs that the debt-laden banking system may soon be recapitalised by European authorities.

German support

In an interview in the Financial Times, Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, said: "There is an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, co-ordinated approach.

"There is a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on," he said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said she favoured a pan-European recapitalisation programme if it proves necessary, and that she stood ready to help German banks absorb losses from a possible write-off of Greece's debts.

Continue reading the main story
There are some European regulators and politicians who regard the downgrade of Italy and the woes of the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia as positive events (oh yes)”

End Quote image of Robert Peston Robert Peston Business editor, BBC News German support is seen as crucial for any such proposal to succeed.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - which has also been calling for eurozone governments to bolster their banks - put the likely cost of such a programme at 200bn euros ($267bn; £173bn).

That would put it within the means of the eurozone's bailout fund - the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) - which is currently being augmented.

In an embarrassing gaffe, the IMF's Europe director, Antonio Borges, suggested in a press conference that the IMF itself may add its own money to the EFSF's.

But he later rushed out a statement retracting his comments, noting that the IMF lacked the legal authority for such a move, nor did the idea have the backing of the IMF's shareholders, which include the US government.

Banks rise

Signs that Europe's leaders were ready to act came on Tuesday when plans were announced to split struggling Franco-Belgian financial group Dexia into its "good" and "bad" banks.

This plan to ring-fence Dexia's toxic debts led to an initial 10% jump in the firm's share prices in early trading, but it ended the day only 1.4% higher.

Continue reading the main story The problems at Dexia have further undermined the credibility of stress tests carried out earlier this year by European regulators to determine the resilience of the EU's banks - tests that Dexia comfortably passed.

Any recapitalisation programme may need to be preceded by a new round of stress tests, according to the BBC's business editor, Robert Peston, and would presumably consider the possibility of a significant write-off of Greek - and possibly other government - debts.

France's three big banks, which are also heavily exposed to Greece, rose sharply on stock markets, with Credit Agricole 9.9% higher at the close of trading.

Italy's biggest banks were up 5%-7%, while in London Barclays rose 7.7% and RBS was 5% higher.

The rally, which began as a late surge on Wall Street on Tuesday night, continued into US trading hours on Wednesday.

By the close of trading in New York, the Dow Jones was up a further 1.2%, with tech and media stocks taking the lead, while the Nasdaq rose 2.3%.


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2011年11月2日星期三

Eurozone rates unchanged at 1.5%

October 6, 2011, last updated Jean-Claude Trichet : 52 BST resignation of President Jean-Claude Trichet as the Bank's Central Europe European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged amid the ongoing crisis in the eurozone debt.

Benchmark rates were held at 1.5% in the third, after growing from 1.25% in July in an attempt to cool inflation.

Earlier, the Bank of England of British kept interest rates hold at 0.5%, but for quantitative re-started.

The decisions come from intensive European leaders beyond speculation does recapitalise banks.


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2011年10月27日星期四

Eurozone manufacturing contracts

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3 October 2011 Last updated at 09:11 GMT German factory worker Markit says the German economy, the eurozone's main engine of growth, is stalling Manufacturing in the eurozone shrank at its fastest pace in two years in September, a business survey has shown.

Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) of activity dropped to 48.5 last month, from 49 in August. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

That is the second consecutive month that eurozone manufacturing has shrunk.

Greece, the focal point of the eurozone's debt crisis, saw its output contract for the 25th consecutive month.

"Manufacturers are reporting the worst business conditions for over two years, facing a combination of lacklustre domestic demand and falling export sales," said Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist.

The region has been weighed down as leaders struggle to prove that heavily indebted countries, led by Greece, will be able to avoid defaulting on their debts.

This has led to bailouts for Greece, the Irish Republic and Portugal - but the crisis has continued and has weighed on bonds and stocks globally.

Even in Germany, the engine of European economic growth, Markit's survey showed factory activity has come to a standstill.


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2011年10月24日星期一

PM warns over eurozone break-up

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2 October 2011 Last updated at 12:27 GMT David Cameron David Cameron warns that the UK cannot shield itself from the crisis in the eurozone Prime Minister David Cameron has warned that it would be "very bad" for the UK if the eurozone was to break up.

Speaking to the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, he said the debt crisis in the eurozone was "a threat not just to itself, but also a threat to the UK economy, and a threat to the world economy".

He reiterated that eurozone leaders had to take quick and decisive action.

Mr Cameron said that, as 40% of UK exports went to the eurozone, it could not shield itself from the problem.

The prime minister said the UK government had "a very clear view" of what needed to be done, and that it was pushing this with its partners in Europe and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

He said eurozone leaders had to strengthen the region's financial mechanisms, ensure the greater involvement of the IMF, and deal decisively with the high levels of sovereign debt.

Mr Cameron added: "Action needs to be taken in the next coming weeks to strengthen Europe's banks, to build the defences that the eurozone has, to deal with the problems of debts decisively."

He said these emergency measures were needed before any long-term plans of more economic coordination across the eurozone were introduced, such as a single tax system.

Greek fears

European stock markets again fell heavily on Friday due to concerns about the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Continue reading the main story Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.It meant that for the three months from July to September, the main UK share index, the FTSE 100, recorded its biggest quarterly fall since 2002.

The concerns centre on Greece, the most indebted eurozone nation.

Greece needs its next 8bn euros (£6.9bn; $10.9bn) instalment of European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout loans by the middle of this month to be able to continue paying its civil servants and teachers.

This tranche was delayed in September after EU, IMF and European Central Bank officials said the Greek government was not carrying out sufficient austerity measures.

The wider fear is that Greece will ultimately default on its debt payments, and of the knock-on effect this would have on banks across Europe which own Greek government bonds.

Some commentators also warn that Greece may ultimately have to leave the eurozone, plunging the region's economic and political systems into chaos.

Eurozone leaders and the IMF are now continuing to work on a solution to the debt crisis, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel due to speak again this week.


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2011年10月18日星期二

VIDEO: Can the eurozone maintain the euro?

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29 September 2011 Last updated at 21:40 GMT Help

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2011年10月15日星期六

AUDIO: Germany 'committed to eurozone'

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Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will today ask her country's politicians to sign off a plan to give more money to Europe's bail out fund.

Peter Altmaier, leader of the parliamentary group for the Christian Democrats, predicts the result and the long term consequences for Angela Merkel.

And Europe editor Gavin Hewitt previews a test of her power and authority.

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